First, estimate how many companies will be worth 0 (usually ~1/2 the portfolio), how many will provide a low return (i.e. 2-3x), how many will provide a medium return (4x+) and how many will provide a high return (10x+). Then see what the impact will be on the return of the fund. Then, experiment with other variables like 0 companies at High return and look at what that impact will be.
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