On September 26th, we asked the GPs and LPs in our community one question: which three trends will define venture in Q4 2026?
48 of you have voted so far, and the top of the board is a one-vote race.
Voting is still open, so these numbers are a snapshot and they'll keep moving. Our next milestone is 100 votes, and we want your picks in the mix before we break it all down live on October 22nd.
To vote, click here and submit your top 3 choices. You'll see the live board as soon as you submit.
Four trends, one vote apart
35%: Physical AI and Robotics
33%: One-Person Unicorns
31%: Agentic VC Firms
29%: Agents Replace Software Seats
33%: One-Person Unicorns
31%: Agentic VC Firms
29%: Agents Replace Software Seats
All four are AI trends, and one more vote for any of them changes the order.
Physical AI is in front, and the market is split on it
In August, Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree closed its first day of trading in Shanghai about 460% above its IPO price after raising roughly $900 million, according to Fortune. In the same story, HSBC analysts warned that the jump in robot shipments might not be what it looks like.
Our voters have this trend in first place right now. Whether that's conviction or momentum is one of the things we'll argue about on the 22nd.
Can one person build a unicorn?
One-Person Unicorns is one vote out of first place.
Forbes reported that solo-founded startups grew from 23.7% of new startups in 2019 to 36.3% by mid-2025. The same article points to First Round data showing that teams with more than one founder outperformed solo founders by 163%.
Both of those can be true at the same time, and a third of our voters think this one defines the quarter.
Agents inside the firm, and agents against the seat
Agentic VC Firms (31%) and Agents Replace Software Seats (29%) are the two "agents do the work" picks, and they're right behind the leaders.
On the software side, Salesforce's COO told investors at Dreamforce on September 16th that the company hasn't seen a decline in seats for its sales and service products (transcript here). And yet the company has also been describing pricing where a customer only pays when the agent resolves the issue, as TIKR covered.
So are seats holding, or is the model already changing underneath them? 29% of our voters are betting on the second one.
The dark horse: The AI Regulation Fight
The AI Regulation Fight sits in fifth at 21%, and there's a lot going on around it.
California wrapped up this year's bill signing on September 30th with a batch of new AI laws (Transparency Coalition has the rundown). In Washington, a draft federal framework would block state AI laws for three years, per Nextgov. And the EU pushed its high-risk AI obligations from August 2026 out to December 2027, according to Orrick.
The bubble question is still open
Only 15% of voters picked AI Bubble, which is about where it landed last quarter.
Outside our survey, the debate is louder. Michael Burry wrote in late September that he expects the AI bubble to burst sooner rather than later (Gizmodo), while Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider expects earnings growth to slow down and not collapse (Benzinga).
Consensus vs. non-consensus
We put both on the ballot this quarter so you could tell us which side of the room you're on. Right now it's nearly even: Consensus Investing has 6 votes and Non-Consensus Opportunities has 5.
What nobody's voting for
0 votes: Rebound in VC Distributions
1 vote: Frontier Lab Consolidation
2 votes: AI Wrapper Wipeout
1 vote: Frontier Lab Consolidation
2 votes: AI Wrapper Wipeout
If you think the room is missing one of these, your vote is the only way it gets on the board.
Now we want your read
We're not taking a side on any of this. These are the trends our community is voting for, and this is what's happening in the market around them.
Vote your top three here, then join us live on Thursday, October 22nd at 8 AM PT. Adeo Ressi and Mike Suprovici will break down the final results, debate the consensus, and demo the agentic AI tools we're building for fund managers.
Keep voting. Every vote moves the board.