On June 1st, we asked the smartest people in venture a simple question: which trends will actually define Q3 2026?
127 GPs, LPs, and venture ecosystem leaders have now voted. (So far)
The early results are in, and they tell a clear story about where the smart money thinks this market is heading.
Voting is still open. These numbers are a snapshot, not a verdict. They will keep moving as more managers weigh in, and we want your read in the mix before we break it all down live on July 2nd.
The room is making one giant bet: AI
It is not close. The top four trends are all artificial intelligence, bunched together at the top like a breakaway pack.
- AI Cofounders: 26%
- Autonomous Agents: 25%
- AI-Powered Investment Tools: 25%
- AI of Everything: 23%
Remember, every voter only gets three picks out of 32 options. Having four AI themes all clear 23% is a landslide. The people funding the future are betting the future is agentic.
Exits are back on the board
The first trend outside the AI cluster is IPO & M&A Reopening at 22%, landing at number five overall. After years of a frozen exit window, more than one in five managers now think the thaw is the story of the quarter. Pair that with Increased Secondary Liquidity at 10% and Rebound in VC Distributions at 6%, and you see a market that believes capital is finally going to start moving again.
Here is where it gets interesting: the bubble debate
This is the tension worth arguing about. AI swept the top of the board. But AI Bubble sits at just 13%, in eighth place. AGI Concerns? Tied for dead last at 2%.
So the consensus is loud and specific: AI is everywhere, AI is real, and almost nobody in this group is willing to call it a bubble. That is either hard-won conviction from the people closest to the deals, or it is exactly the kind of agreement that shows up right before a cycle turns. We genuinely do not know yet. That is the debate we want to have with you.
The trends nobody is seeing
The bottom of the list is just as revealing as the top. The entire bear case is sitting in the basement:
- Investment Slowdown: 2%
- Portfolio Markdowns: 2%
- Growth of Continuation Funds: 2%
- Longer Exit Timelines: 3%
- Excessive Dry Powder: 3%
If you believe the crowd is usually wrong at the extremes, the most contrarian position in venture right now is simple: bet on a slowdown. Almost no one in this survey is.
The emerging manager moment is real
Rise of Emerging Managers came in at 16%, tied for sixth with Geopolitical Uncertainty. New and smaller funds catching the LP commitments that brand names used to lock up early is no longer a fringe view. It is a top-tier trend, and it lines up with everything we are seeing inside our own programs.
Now we want your read
These results are based on 127 responses, and they are still moving. Every new vote shifts the board. We are watching to see whether the AI sweep holds, or whether the bubble crowd starts catching up as more managers weigh in.
Cast your three votes below and tell us what you are actually seeing in the market.
We will break down the final results, the biggest surprises, and what they mean for your fund at our Q3 Venture Trends event on July 2nd, our most popular quarterly gathering. RSVP here to get the full breakdown and the practical strategies for capitalizing on these conditions.
Keep voting. The smartest read on Q3 is the one we build together.